Africa’s energy transition presents a major opportunity for economic growth, but countries must carefully balance climate goals with development needs, according to NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber.
In an opinion piece, Ayuk said Africa’s contribution to global emissions remains disproportionately low despite its growing population, arguing that the continent should not be forced into an accelerated fossil fuel phase-out that undermines energy access and economic stability.
“Today, Africa contributes less than 5% of the world’s energy-related emissions, despite being home to 19% of Earth’s population,” Ayuk wrote, noting that emissions are projected to rise to only 9% by 2060 even as population growth accelerates.
Ayuk criticised calls from Western climate advocates for universal and rapid fossil fuel elimination, saying such approaches fail to account for Africa’s infrastructure gaps and development realities.
“This makes ZERO sense,” he wrote, referring to pressure to rapidly phase out fossil fuels without addressing Africa’s energy deficits.
The report highlights that limited grid capacity, outdated transmission infrastructure and low electricity access rates mean decarbonisation must proceed alongside expansion of reliable energy supply. Ayuk said large-scale renewable integration will require major investment in grid modernisation, regulatory reform and skills development.
Despite these challenges, the report identifies green hydrogen as a major growth opportunity. Africa could produce more than nine million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually by 2035, supported by abundant solar and wind resources and proximity to export markets.
Countries including Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Morocco and Egypt are already advancing large-scale green hydrogen projects. Namibia’s USD10 billion Hyphen project alone is expected to produce over 300,000 tonnes annually for export, while Egypt has secured more than USD17.4 billion in hydrogen-related investment commitments.
Beyond hydrogen, the report underscores Africa’s strategic importance in critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper and platinum group metals, which are essential to the global energy transition. Demand for these minerals is expected to increase five-fold by 2035, positioning mineral-rich African countries as key global suppliers.
However, Ayuk cautioned that capturing value will depend on stable regulation, regional cooperation, investment in processing infrastructure and workforce development, while avoiding human rights abuses linked to extractive industries.
He urged African governments to use the energy transition as a pathway to move up global value chains and reduce energy poverty, warning that failure to invest in governance and skills could limit long-term gains.
