Africa’s aviation sector is entering a decisive moment as policymakers and industry leaders seek to convert rapidly rising travel demand into sustainable connectivity, stronger airline competitiveness and long-term financial viability.
The challenge dominated discussions at the Airlines, Capital and Connectivity Forum held in Nairobi in February convened by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with the African Airlines Association.
The two-day gathering brought together airline executives, transport ministers, regulators, investors and development partners to explore ways of unlocking financing and accelerating infrastructure investment across Africa’s aviation sector.
Participants acknowledged that while Africa’s aviation market outlook remains among the strongest globally, the sector continues to struggle with deep structural constraints.
These include high costs of capital, fragmented regulatory regimes, infrastructure deficits and limited access to long-term financing.
To help address these challenges, the African Development Bank Group is advancing an Integrated Aviation Transformation Program (IATP), a continent-wide platform aimed at modernising Africa’s aviation ecosystem and mobilising large-scale capital from private, institutional and concessional sources.
The programme seeks to align policy reforms, innovative financing mechanisms and project delivery within a coordinated framework capable of attracting investment.
Opening the forum, the Bank’s Director for Infrastructure and Urban Development, Mike Salawou, said Africa’s aviation demand outlook is strong but supply-side capacity has struggled to keep pace.
He noted that the transformation programme aims to de-risk priority investments and support early pilot transactions that could restore confidence among commercial and institutional financiers.
Industry stakeholders say the opportunity remains enormous.
Secretary General of the African Airlines Association, Abderahmane Berthé, noted the imbalance between Africa’s population size and its share of global air traffic.
“Africa represents nearly 18 percent of the global population but accounts for less than three percent of worldwide air traffic, reflecting structural and regulatory barriers rather than weak demand,” he said.
The scale of future demand could reshape the global aviation industry.
Remarks delivered on behalf of Kenya Airways described Africa as the largest structural aviation opportunity of the 21st century, noting that one in four new global air travellers over the next two decades is expected to originate from the continent.
This growth will be driven by rapid urbanisation, expanding middle-income populations and Africa’s youthful demographic profile.
Despite this promising outlook, financial performance across the continent’s airlines remains fragile.
According to the International Air Transport Association, African airlines are projected to generate net margins of just 1–2 percent, significantly below the global industry average forecast of 3.9 percent in 2026.
High fuel costs, heavy taxation, incomplete liberalisation and limited hub infrastructure continue to weigh heavily on airline profitability.
Connectivity challenges also remain a major obstacle.
Intra-African travel currently accounts for only about a quarter of total air traffic, with many passengers forced to transit through hubs outside the continent to reach other African destinations.
Participants emphasised that full implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market is critical to unlocking efficient intra-continental connectivity and strengthening the competitiveness of African airlines.
A keynote address delivered by Eric Ntagengerwa of the African Union Commission on behalf of Infrastructure and Energy Commissioner Lerato Dorothy Mataboge framed aviation reform as essential to Africa’s economic integration and global competitiveness.
He noted that the Single African Air Transport Market has been designated as the African Union’s theme for the year 2027.
Over the course of the forum, discussions focused on strengthening airline bankability, developing climate-aligned aviation systems, expanding cargo and logistics capacity, building aviation skills and deploying innovative risk-sharing mechanisms under the new transformation programme.
Country experiences from Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia were presented as examples of how continental aviation ambitions can translate into coordinated national reforms and near-term investment opportunities.
Senior adviser to Nigeria’s aviation ministry, Samuel Obafemi Bajomo, emphasised that forward-looking investment policies are essential to unlocking the sector’s full potential.
He said strong policy frameworks could position aviation as a catalyst for trade, tourism and broader economic diversification across Africa.
The forum concluded with a clear message from both policymakers and industry leaders: Africa’s aviation demand is accelerating rapidly, but translating that growth into sustainable connectivity will require coordinated action on financing, regulation and infrastructure development.
