African commodity markets recorded a mixed performance in the second half of 2025, as gains in energy and metals were partly offset by declining agricultural prices, according to a report by Afreximbank.
The bank’s Africa Commodity Index (AACI) shows that oil-exporting economies benefited from relatively firm crude prices, supporting export revenues and external balances. Metals such as gold and copper also posted moderate gains, underpinned by global demand tied to energy transition investments and safe-haven buying.
In contrast, agricultural commodities including cocoa and coffee faced price volatility and production challenges, weighed down by adverse weather conditions and rising input costs. The divergence reflects uneven exposure across African economies, many of which rely heavily on a narrow range of exports.
The report highlights that global factors, including monetary policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and demand trends in major economies, continue to shape commodity price movements. This leaves African economies vulnerable to external shocks, particularly those dependent on raw commodity exports.
Afreximbank noted early signs of changing trade dynamics under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with gradual increases in intra-African trade in processed goods. However, infrastructure deficits, high logistics costs and limited industrial capacity remain key constraints.
The findings point to a persistent structural challenge. While stronger energy and metals prices offer short-term relief, the broader outlook remains fragile due to reliance on unprocessed commodity exports. Without significant investment in value addition and industrial capacity, African economies are likely to remain exposed to global price swings, limiting the stability of growth and export earnings.
The bank, expects commodity markets to remain sensitive to global economic conditions and climate-related risks. It said strengthening regional value chains and expanding processing capacity will be critical to improving resilience and ensuring more stable, long-term growth.
