Deeper economic integration across Africa can significantly improve food security and reduce undernourishment, according to a new Afreximbank research paper that strengthens the economic case for accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The study, based on data from 54 African countries covering 2001 to 2023, found that a one-percentage-point increase in the share of intra-African exports was associated with about a 0.747-percentage-point reduction in the prevalence of undernourishment. The relationship remained statistically significant after accounting for country and year effects.
The findings suggest that regional trade integration can be more than a tool for expanding commerce: It can also strengthen the continent’s ability to move food from surplus areas to deficit markets, reduce scarcity and help moderate food-price volatility.
That carries particular weight for Africa, where progress toward ending hunger has reversed in recent years. The paper cites estimates showing that almost 282 million Africans, about 20% of the population, were undernourished in 2022, an increase of 57 million people since the Covid-19 pandemic began. About 868 million people were moderately or severely food insecure.
Trade as a food-security tool
The research argues that regional integration can improve food security by expanding markets and allowing food to move more efficiently across borders.
Food-deficit countries can gain access to larger regional supplies, while lower trade barriers can reduce the cost of importing food. Greater intra-African agricultural trade can also help countries supplement domestic production and reduce supply volatility, according to the study.
The research measures regional economic integration primarily through intra-regional exports, the share of a country’s exports going to partners within Africa. At the continental level, that share rose from 10.9% in 2001-2003 to 17.6% in 2016-2018 before falling to 15.7% in 2022-2024, partly reflecting the disruption to trade caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and other external shocks.
The regional picture is uneven. Eastern Africa consistently records the highest intra-African export shares, approaching 18%, while Southern Africa has also developed stronger regional trade linkages. Central Africa remains the weakest performer, underscoring the need for stronger infrastructure and more resilient regional supply chains.
The AfCFTA case
The findings provide empirical support for faster implementation of the AfCFTA, which the paper identifies as a key instrument for strengthening Africa’s food security.
The agreement seeks to create an integrated African market for goods and services by reducing barriers to cross-border trade. The study says deeper implementation, alongside existing regional economic communities, can strengthen agricultural trade, reduce food-price volatility and improve access to nutritious food.
But the research also cautions against treating integration as an automatic solution. The benefits vary according to countries’ characteristics, the depth of integration, infrastructure and the quality of complementary national and regional policies.
That distinction is particularly important for poorer and landlocked economies. The study finds that landlocked countries have higher undernourishment rates than coastal countries, consistent with the impact of limited access to seaports and higher transport costs on food security.
The effect of integration also differs by income group. The relationship between regional integration and lower undernourishment is significant for both low-income and middle-income countries, but the effect is stronger and more statistically significant among middle-income economies.
Infrastructure remains critical
The study’s findings point to a broader infrastructure challenge behind Africa’s food-security problem. Greater trade integration requires the ability to move agricultural products across borders efficiently. The researchers, therefore, call for regional investments in transport and storage infrastructure, harmonised standards and early-warning mechanisms alongside trade-integration efforts.
Other domestic factors also matter. The research identifies GDP per capita, agricultural productivity, arable land and institutional quality as significant factors associated with food-security outcomes. Higher income, greater agricultural productivity and stronger institutions are associated with lower prevalence of undernourishment.
The study tested its central finding through alternative measures of regional integration and different measures of food security. Those exercises continued to show a significant relationship between deeper regional integration and improved food security, including dimensions such as food availability, access, utilisation and stability.
The paper’s central message is therefore not simply that Africa should trade more. It is that deeper and better-supported regional integration can become part of the continent’s strategy for tackling hunger.
For policymakers, the implication is clear, accelerating the AfCFTA needs to go hand in hand with investment in the infrastructure, agricultural capacity and institutions required to make regional food markets work.
