Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson will present the 2027 Budget to Parliament tomorrow Thursday, November 12, under the title “The New Economy”. It lands as a very strong El Niño bears down on a country whose farming still depends largely on rain, and the budget must make specific provision for the damage ahead.
The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) puts the probability at 96 per cent that El Niño reaches very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. The agency has cautioned that impacts will not be uniform, but it expects the effect to be heavier in the north. That is the part of the country that matters most for food production.
The exposure runs beyond the farm gate. GMet’s technical brief flags that the 2027 inflow season will determine hydropower generation in 2028. Analysts have also noted that lower agricultural output could add to pressure on food supplies and household budgets, if reduced harvests coincide with higher transport and production costs.
Cocoa illustrates the scale of the production risk facing Ghana’s agricultural sector. Reuters reported that the Cocoa Marketing Company expects output to decline in the 2026/27 season, with COCOBOD projecting a production drop of at least 16% due to unfavourable weather, disease and the cocoa tree’s natural production cycle.
The budget arrives after a period of macroeconomic recovery, with inflation declining from 23.8% in December 2024 to 5.5% in October 2026. However, a shortfall in food supply could threaten this stability, given the significant contribution of food prices to Ghana’s overall inflation rate.
GMet has urged the agriculture ministry to prioritise drought-tolerant and early-maturing seeds, expand irrigation and water harvesting in vulnerable northern and transition-zone districts, and strengthen national food and seed reserves. The agency also recommends a national preparedness task force.
Dr. Frank Ackah, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Crop Science at the University of Cape Coast, said this season’s dry spell is only the first of several. “This is just the beginning,” he said. “How about next year? We are going to have a long drought spell.” He said the country should “invest more in irrigation”, and that he has seen no budget for farmer training.
The size of the allocation will reflect the government’s response to a climate-related threat that scientists warn is already affecting the sector.
