- Inflation Beats Expectations
Headline inflation dropped to 13.7% y/y, below IC’s 16.0% forecast, driven by stronger Cedi performance. - Core Inflation in Single Digits
Core inflation hit 8.3% y/y, first time since October 2021, signaling softening underlying price pressures. - Food Prices Drop Sharply
Food inflation declined to 16.3%, with 14 of 15 sub-categories falling. Seasonal harvests and stable FX may push it further down. - Non-Food Inflation Hits 3.5-Year Low
Now at 11.4% y/y. Transport prices dropped 8.5% due to cheaper fuel, despite a rise in housing costs. - 2025 Forecast Revised Down
IC adjusts year-end inflation outlook to 10.3%–12.3%, with a chance of ~9.0% if trends continue. - Key Risks Ahead
The return of the fuel levy on July 16 and potential electricity tariff hikes in Q4 could slow disinflation. - Policy Rate Cut Deepens
IC now expects a 300bps rate cut in July, up from 200bps, as real policy rate jumps to 14.3%. - Bond Market Rally in Sight
IC sees bond yields falling toward the mid-teens, with possible re-openings in 2031–2038 maturities. - Rare Deflation in June
Prices fell -1.2% m/m, a surprise compared to IC’s forecast of +0.8%, driven by Cedi strength. - Disinflation Still Fragile
IC remains cautious, warning that fuel and tariff shocks could disrupt the downward inflation path.
Final Thought
Ghana’s inflation outlook is improving, but the road ahead requires careful management of risks and continued macro stability.
